Construction and assessment of a logistic regression model applied to short-term forecasting of thunderstorms in León (Spain)     

Jos Luis Snchez  Eduardo García Ortega  Jos Luis Marcos 《Atmospheric Research》2001,56(1-4)

Forecasting thunderstorms is one of the most difficult tasks in weather prediction due to the scarce knowledge on how to characterise the mechanisms taking part in the formation of thunderstorms. New tools based upon the objective recognition of appropriate conceptual models have been developed in the last years. A good example of this are the statistical models, based on variables that characterise the preconvective atmospheric conditions.This paper presents the results obtained by applying a short-term forecast model to thunderstorms during the summer periods in León (Spain). This model makes use of the logistic function as a binary forecasting technique determining storm/no storm. The logistic function used was a combination of 15 previously selected meteorological variables. The model has been constructed with the data collected on 152 occasions, and it has been verified on 77 other occasions.The skill scores obtained show that the use of statistical models combining the data, provided by variables characterizing the preconvective conditions and the triggering mechanisms, represent an important step in the difficult task of short-term thunderstorm forecasting.  相似文献   

The ichthyofauna and abiotic hydrological environment of the Ria de Aveiro,Portugal     

José Eduardo Rebelo 《Estuaries and Coasts》1992,15(3):403-413

The abiotic hydrological environment and the community dynamics of the fish fauna were investigated in the Ria de Aveiro, an estuarine coastal lagoon system (43 km²), which has both marine and fluvial influences. Abiotic hydrological and fish community parameters were recorded routinely during 12 months at ten stations. Temperature ranged between 9.5°C and 26.0°C, salinity between 0.0‰ and 32.0‰, dissolved oxygen between 0.8 mg 1^?1 and 15.4 mg 1^?1, pH between 6.1 and 9.4, and transparency between 4.4% and 100.0%. No significant differences were observed in temperature and dissolved oxygen among stations, or in seasonal variation in transparency. Nineteen thousand thirty-one fish specimens comprising 55 species were sampled. Abundance, biomass, and species richness were highest in summer and late winter at stations near the lagoon entrance. Sedentary species were most numerous, marine migratory species had the highest biomass, and the category “occasional species” had the highest number of species. Atherinidae, Mugilidae, and Gobiidae were the most important families. Eight species represented about 80% of the total fish abundance and biomass but only six species occurred in all the months and at all the stations. It was concluded that the Ria de Aveiro, with high seasonal and spatial abiotic variation, has a very rich and representative fish community compared with temperate and tropical estuaries and estuarine coastal lagoons around the world.  相似文献   

Redundancy and diversity of functional reef fish groups of the Mexican Eastern Pacific          下载免费PDF全文

Rosalia Aguilar‐Medrano  Luis Eduardo Calderon‐Aguilera 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(1):119-133

Coral reefs are in crisis worldwide. Fish play a key role in the resilience of reefs because most of the biomass of the ecosystem flows through them. Evidence indicates that the response to stressors will vary markedly depending on the resilience of the ecosystem. In order to assess the functional groups of reef fishes, morphometric and ecomorphological analyses were carried out on the shape and diet of 117 reef fish species from the Mexican Eastern Pacific (MEP) from 23°N to 15°N, spanning the years 2009–2012. Six trophic groups were identified and subdivided into 19 functional groups: (A) detritus and plants consumers, three morphologies; (B) plants and zoobenthos consumers, four morphologies; (C) zoobenthos consumers, two morphologies; (D) zoobenthos and zooplankton consumers, three morphologies; (E) zooplankton and nekton consumers, three morphologies; and (F) nekton consumers, four morphologies. Our main conclusions are: (i) fish communities of the MEP have a high degree of ecological redundancy; (ii) fish diversity is not related to the coral cover; and (iii) the combination of using both morphology and diet produce a more effective classification of functional groups. Future studies such as these will allow a deeper understanding of environment and it will help illuminate the effects of fish morphology and diet on population structure.  相似文献   

Spatial variability of phytoplankton absorption coefficients and pigments off Baja California during November 2002     

Óscar A. Barocio-León  Roberto Millán-Núñez  Eduardo Santamaría-del-Ángel  Adriana González-Silvera  Charles C. Trees 《Journal of Oceanography》2006,62(6):873-885

We have estimated the spatial variability of phytoplankton specific absorption coefficients (a* _ph ) in the water column of the California Current System during November 2002, taking into account the variability in pigment composition and phytoplankton community structure and size. Oligotrophic conditions (surface Chl < 0.2 mg m⁻³) dominated offshore, while mesotrophic conditions (surface Chl 0.2 to 2.0 mg m⁻³) where found inshore. The specific absorption coefficient at 440 [a* _ph (440)] ranged from 0.025–0.281 m²mg⁻¹ while at 675 nm [a* _ph (675)] it varied between 0.014 and 0.087 m²mg⁻¹. The implementation of a size index based on HPLC data showed the community structure was dominated by picoplankton. This would reduce the package effect in the variability of a* _ph (675). Normalized a _ph curves were classified in two groups according to their shape, separating all spectra with peaks between 440 and 550 nm as the second group. Most samples in the first group were from surface layers, while the second group were from the deep chlorophyll maximum or deeper. Accessory photoprotective pigments (APP) tended to decrease with depth and accessory photosynthetic pigments (APS) to increase, indicating the importance of photoprotective mechanisms in surface layers and adaptation to low light at depth. Samples with higher ratios of APP:APS (>0.4) were considered as phytoplankton adapted to high irradiances, and lower ratios (<0.26) as adapted to low irradiances. We found a good relationship between APP:APS and a* _ph (440) for the deeper layer (DCM and below), but no clear evidence of the factors causing the variability of a* _ph (440) in the upper layer.  相似文献   

Reloca Slide: an ~24 km3 submarine mass‐wasting event in response to over‐steepening and failure of the central Chilean continental slope          下载免费PDF全文

Eduardo Contreras‐Reyes  David Vlker  Jrg Bialas  Eduardo Moscoso  Ingo Grevemeyer 《地学学报》2016,28(4):257-264

Reloca Slide is the relict of an ~24‐km³ submarine slope collapse at the base of the convergent continental margin of central Chile. Bathymetric and seismic data show that directly to the north and south of the slide the lower continental slope is steep (~10°), the deformation front is shifted landwards by 10–15 km, and the frontal accretionary prism is uplifted. In contrast, ~80 km to the north the lower continental margin presents a lower slope angle of about 4° and a wide frontal accretionary prism. We propose that high effective basal friction conditions at the base of the accretionary prism favoured basal accretion of sediment and over‐steepening of the continental slope, producing massive submarine mass wasting in the Reloca region. This area also spatially correlates with a zone of low coseismic slip of the 2010 Maule megathrust earthquake, which is consistent with high basal frictional coefficients.  相似文献   

Linking shock textures revealed by BSE,CL, and EBSD with U‐Pb data (LA‐ICP‐MS and SIMS) from zircon from the Araguainha impact structure,Brazil     

Natalia Hauser  Wolf Uwe Reimold  Aaron J. Cavosie  Alvaro P. Crsta  Winfried H. Schwarz  Mario Trieloff  Carolinna Da Silva Maia de Souza  Luciana A. Pereira  Eduardo N. Rodrigues  Matthews Brown 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(10):2286-2311

A silicious impact melt rock from polymict impact breccia of the northern part of the alkali granite core of the Araguainha impact structure, central Brazil, has been investigated. The melt rock is thought to represent a large mass of impact‐generated melt in suevite. In particular, a diverse population of zircon grains, with different impact‐induced microstructures, has been analyzed for U‐Pb isotopic systematics. Backscattered electron and cathodoluminescence images reveal heterogeneous intragrain domains with vesicular, granular, vesicular plus granular, and vesicular plus (presumably) baddeleyite textures, among others. The small likely baddeleyite inclusions are not only preferentially located along grain margins but also occur locally within grain interiors. LA‐ICP‐MS U‐Pb data from different domains yield lower intercept ages of 220, 240, and 260 Ma, a result difficult to reconcile with the previous “best age” estimate for the impact event at 254.7 ± 2.7 Ma. SIMS U‐Pb data, too, show a relatively large range of ages from 245 to 262 Ma. A subset of granular grains that yielded concordant SIMS ages were analyzed for crystallographic orientation by EBSD. Orientation mapping shows that this population consists of approximately micrometer‐sized neoblasts that preserve systematic orientation evidence for the former presence of the high‐pressure polymorph reidite. In one partially granular grain (#36), the neoblasts occur in linear arrays that likely represent former reidite lamellae. Such grains are referred to as FRIGN zircon. The best estimate for the age of the Araguainha impact event from our data set from a previously not analyzed type of impact melt rock is based on concordant SIMS data from FRIGN zircon grains. This age is 251.5 ± 2.9 Ma (2σ, MSWD = 0.45, p = 0.50, n = 4 analyses on three grains), indistinguishable from previous estimates based on zircon and monazite from other impact melt lithologies at Araguainha. Our work provides a new example of how FRIGN zircon can be combined with in situ U‐Pb geochronology to extract an accurate age for an impact event.  相似文献   

Crustal growth of the central-eastern Paleoproterozoic domain,SW Amazonian craton: Juvenile accretion vs. reworking     

Moacir José Buenano Macambira  Marcelo Lacerda Vasquez  Daniela Cristina Costa da Silva  Marco Antonio Galarza  Carlos Eduardo de Mesquita Barros  Julielson de Freitas Camelo 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2009,27(4):235-246

The Trans-Amazonian cycle was an important rock-forming event in South America, generating voluminous juvenile and reworked fractions of continental crust. The Bacajá domain, in the southern sector of the Maroni-Itacaiúnas Province in the Amazonian craton, is an example of the Trans-Amazonian terranes adjacent to the Archean Carajás block. Zircon Pb-evaporation and whole-rock Sm–Nd analyses were carried out on representative samples of six lithological units, and allowed the proposal of a comprehensive tectonic-magmatic evolutionary sequence for the central and eastern parts of this domain, from the Neoarchean to the Rhyacian. Gneisses with ages of ca. 2.67 and 2.44 Ga are the oldest rocks recorded in the region, and probably represent remnants of island and continental arcs. The Três Palmeiras succession, emplaced between 2.36 and 2.34 Ga, hosts gold deposits and represents the first record of Siderian supracrustal rocks in the Amazonian craton. It was probably part of an island arc/ocean floor accreted to a craton margin. Rhyacian granitogenesis lasted for ca. 140 My (2.22–2.08 Ga), marking different stages of the Trans-Amazonian cycle. The first stage is represented by continental arc granitoids formed by melting of Archean crust at 2.22–2.18 Ga. The second is characterized by the production of juvenile material between 2.16 and 2.13 Ga. The third and final stage at ca. 2.08 Ga is represented by a large volume of granitoids originated from either juvenile material or reworked crust during compressive stresses. Nd isotopes reveal that juvenile rocks dominated in the northern part of the domain, whereas those formed from reworked crust predominate in the south. The present-day configuration of the Bacajá domain results from collision against the Archean Carajás block at the end of the Trans-Amazonian cycle.  相似文献   

Efficient multivariable submarine depth-control system design     

Eduardo Licaga-Castro  Jesús Licaga-Castro  Carlos E. Ugalde-Loo  Eva M. Navarro-Lpez 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(17-18):1747-1758

An efficient solution for the multivariable submarine control design at low-depth conditions under the influence of wave disturbances is presented. The analysis and control design process is carried out under the framework of individual channel analysis and design (ICAD), which is based on the multivariable structure function (MSF). Classical frequency-domain control techniques based on Bode and Nyquist plots are used. Robustness is stated in terms of gain and phase margins. The closed-loop system includes low-order diagonal controllers facilitating its implementation, assessment, and tuning. ICAD discloses new physical insights of the submarine dynamical behaviour. Previous designs based on diagonal controllers consider the input–output channels defined by pairing the bow hydroplane angle with the depth and the stern hydroplane angle with the pitch angle. The alternative input–output pairing leads to unstable closed-loop systems. This phenomenon is associated with hydroplane reverse control. Here it is shown that MSF-based diagonal controllers can be applied effectively for both sets of channel configurations. Emphasis is placed on satisfying design specifications aiming at maintaining the depth low. The solution presented is more feasible and clearer to apply in practice than those so far reported in the literature.  相似文献   

Eight-hundred years of summer temperature variations in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula reconstructed from tree rings     

Isabel Dorado Liñán  Eduardo Zorita  Jesús Fidel González-Rouco  Ingo Heinrich  Filipe Campello  Elena Muntán  Laia Andreu-Hayles  Emilia Gutiérrez 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(1-2):75-93

  相似文献   

Groundwater Level Prediction/Forecasting and Assessment of Uncertainty Using SGS and ARIMA Models: A Case Study in the Bauru Aquifer System (Brazil)     

Takafuji  Eduardo Henrique de Moraes  Rocha  Marcelo Monteiro da  Manzione  Rodrigo Lilla 《Natural Resources Research》2019,28(2):487-503

Natural Resources Research - Best water management practices should involve the prediction of the availability of groundwater resources. To predict/forecast and consequently manage these water...  相似文献